Caution on New Adoption

Despite the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), building out the necessary ecosystem to match its vision remains a significant technical challenge, especially in agentic commerce. Many companies are prioritizing this area, yet the work required is substantial, and integrating AI into the modern economy is highly complex.

Christopher Miller, Lead Analyst in Emerging Payments at Javelin Strategy & Research, advises caution on agentic commerce. His new report, 2025 Emerging Payments Survey: Agents Enter the Stage, warns that the technology won’t be scaling even within the next one to two years.

Consumer Interest in Agents

Much of the hype around AI has led many to believe that agentic commerce is already at scale. However, Miller states, “That’s not true.” What’s accurate is that there’s consumer interest in using chat-like tools for purchase consideration. While some evidence suggests consumers might complete purchases through their agents, these numbers are currently very small.

Survey data from 3,000 people shows 100 users, which by definition are early adopters and don’t represent the broader population’s behaviors or trajectories. Nonetheless, a significant number of people—40%—are willing to try agentic commerce tools. This indicates potential for future consumer adoption.

Even among those who haven’t used such tools, 40% say they might be willing to trust them. Sporadic use by many people, several times weekly or monthly, also suggests interest in the technology.

M Miller explains, “This willingness is a sign that there’s room for growth.” While surveys may show some categorical unwillingness due to discomfort or distrust of companies providing AI tools, high willingness among non-users suggests potential for expansion.

The Evolving AI Experience

The role of agentic commerce in the future is also uncertain. Most people interact with the Internet by typing into a search box to find sites or suggestions. The shift from Google to ChatGPT as their first stop for information could significantly alter how users make shopping decisions.

Miller says, “If consumers never decide that ChatGPT is their primary source of information and continue using Google, then the growth potential for agentic commerce will be limited.” Whether it remains a niche or integrates alongside traditional methods depends on broader consumer behavior shifts.

The Future of Agentic Commerce

While ChatGPT is currently the most widely used AI interface, Miller believes this might not be its unique value proposition as the industry matures. Early Internet services like AOL and CompuServe bundled web access with a user interface, while today’s ChatGPT provides a chat interface that may seem transformative but won’t remain the sole solution.

Miller suggests that future agentic commerce features could be embedded in other tools. Some people might prefer multiple entry points rather than a single access point, trusting specific companies for insights and advice. He foresees delivery of AI tools from major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target more likely.

The Challenge for Businesses

The shift towards accepting agents as payment entities requires businesses to adapt their technical and business capabilities. Failure to do so will result in losing out on opportunities. Miller concludes, “You must change your approaches to recognize this reality or face the risk of falling behind.”